Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 3.049909 3.624219 4.263812 5.027009 5.910908 6.900328 8.089609
2025-06-29 2.057317 2.780503 3.679940 4.872089 6.400860 8.284656 10.769364
2025-07-06 1.487739 2.248524 3.288631 4.794237 6.893400 9.687809 13.654205
2025-07-13 1.248732 2.072784 3.291278 5.186311 8.011223 12.007457 18.011947
2025-07-20 1.025409 1.854621 3.170982 5.353551 8.804152 13.949759 22.067783
2025-07-27 0.868607 1.698177 3.101809 5.564859 9.664347 16.062528 26.586937
2025-08-03 0.714911 1.507137 2.932145 5.570758 10.179090 17.681571 30.504762
2025-08-10 0.567947 1.290998 2.672763 5.369383 10.303514 18.667756 33.493897
2025-08-17 0.445496 1.091411 2.401601 5.092746 10.242606 19.315585 35.961525
2025-08-24 0.368795 0.968154 2.252023 5.013958 10.515651 20.545667 39.514233
2025-08-31 0.309276 0.867985 2.128923 4.963143 10.825634 21.859419 43.320545
2025-09-07 0.280254 0.833352 2.138857 5.184811 11.688780 24.260979 49.292999
2025-09-14 0.239817 0.761161 2.054990 5.201192 12.158231 26.003994 54.281063
2025-09-21 0.204355 0.692771 1.967281 5.196311 12.586290 27.718417 59.394591
2025-09-28 0.173637 0.628795 1.877227 5.170484 12.964623 29.370802 64.540453
2025-10-05 0.167517 0.637521 1.975557 5.612311 14.434422 33.382833 74.711349
2025-10-12 0.151483 0.610119 1.972017 5.800217 15.346371 36.314915 82.934347
2025-10-19 0.138740 0.589933 1.984429 6.030447 16.383574 39.604535 92.157275
2025-10-26 0.120639 0.545111 1.916720 6.037944 16.886181 41.778014 99.209667
2025-11-02 0.099329 0.480706 1.775983 5.821823 16.808830 42.655656 103.558367
2025-11-09 0.079825 0.415525 1.616939 5.524395 16.483099 42.932344 106.609328
2025-11-16 0.067902 0.377105 1.535834 5.439673 16.697931 44.475897 112.595355
2025-11-23 0.058303 0.345020 1.468636 5.385011 16.985120 46.213887 119.154747